BROADER MARKET
$ES / $SPY
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WVnxB5S5/
We started to retrace last week and I find it hard to believe we’ve found support already. After going over tons of charts, it becomes pretty hard to come to any other conclusion. The 20d is really the first area of support, but personally I think we may be in for a 50d touch. IF that’s the case, we need to be careful about starting in too early on long ideas. It doesn’t mean I won’t take my shots when they present themselves, but I will be extra greedy in what I need to see in order to get me to put capital at risk on the long side. If we don’t gap down Monday morning, I would actually be looking at any push back into 4340-4360 as a great opportunity to look for short setups.
$NQ / $QQQ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bnEPBLoQ/
NQ triggered a major short trigger last Thursday which then tried to bounce the next day and as soon as it pushed back into the underside of that short trigger got immediately SLAMMED. It was such a convincing slap to the Nasdaq that it just lends that much more credence to the bias this week being bearish. As always, I remain keen to the fact that I can be wrong. Can we go higher from here without ever retracing back to the 20d? Sure. But the more we continue higher without any real meaningful resets, the less healthy the uptrend becomes and when we finally do retrace, we run the risk of it being a deep pullback.
$BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CsCc3gWx/
Nothing has changed here. I am literally going to copy/paste from last week’s prep…
“Again, thoughts from prior few weeks on this space still apply. The long we go sideways, the healthier this becomes. But decided to throw the weekly chart in there this week to point a few things out. You can see the weekly 20sma has rolled over and is now heading down. My guess is that we just stay pinned between the weekly 20sma and the weekly 50sma until they converge. If we can just hang out sideways in this range until that happens, it would be around that time when I would start to think that a large move from this base that has been developing can occur.”
INDUSTRY RANKINGS
Top Groups
Bottom Groups
LONG SETUPS
STRONG STOCKS LOOKING FOR CONTINUATION
$CRM
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5nRwYPpL/
Looking for a flush into the 200d/monthly pivot/quarterly pivot in the 233 area for a high probability spot for a bounce. Added bonus is that level is ALSO the 20sma on the weekly. I will also be starting a swing long down in that area in my longer term account. But will just nibble for now due to the early comments mentioned about the broader market.
$ZM
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DcgOCARz/
Looking for a flush towards the 50d for a bounce on this name. The ATR is almost 13pts, so that puts us right in line with where we closed Friday at 362. Kinda interested to see if this name catches a bid with all the”covid resurgence” headlines.
OVERSOLD REVERSION SETUPS
$SPCE
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9aTOABbZ/
Would be SUPER excited to get a hard flush down to 25 for scoops.
$NVDA
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2f1Lpit8/
This is not a name I want to be early on, but I really think it’s getting close to the spot where I might take a shot. It has a 23pt ATR so from where we are now, that would put us right down into the psychological whole number of 700. You can see the 50d right below that as well as the monthly and annual pivots not much further off in the distance.
$WYNN
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PSZbWywS/
Patience on this name is paying off for me. If you recall, last week I said I wanted lower before starting and if I didn’t get it then I would just sadly miss the trade. But here we are, and we are coming into the levels I wanted. 100-104 is the range I like. But just like ZM might catch a bid because of renewed covid headlines, that may also spill over into travel related names and cause them to fall. We will see.
SHORT SETUPS
WEAK STOCKS LOOKING FOR CONTINUATION
$FLSY
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TuDjnLvQ/
Would be looking for a hard pop into the 20d for a short.
$RBLX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/20yAudBF/
Would be looking for a hard pop into the 20d for a short.
$JMIA
https://www.tradingview.com/x/x2qVhKzS/
Would be looking for a hard pop into the 20d for a short.
$LAZR
https://www.tradingview.com/x/b2Irwo9U/
Would be looking for a hard pop into the 20d for a short.
LMFAO, we starting to see a theme here?
OVERBOUGHT REVERSION SETUPS
$MRNA
https://www.tradingview.com/x/F9ptKshx/
This is my main focus heading into Monday. It’s getting to be A+ up here. You can see it did a very similar move back in late November of last year. But if this is a repeat of that, then we would need a gap up Monday morning and that would have to hold up and gap 1 last time on Tuesday. Definitely no guarantees that is what is setting up. But I am definitely praying for the gap up tomorrow on this. If we get that, then I will be stalking for lower highs to set in and present some levels to have defined risk against. Remember, if/when this plays out, the downside is NOT just a few points. We are looking for 10,15, even 20pts of downside. If we don’t get the gap up, I will still be interested, but it won’t really be A+ at that point. We NEED this to stay extreme in order to have that big edge.
EARNINGS
Here is this coming week’s lineup.
$IBM
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MsrxHMx2/
If the numbers are good and this gaps up, I would be looking to fade if it spikes into the monthly pivot around 147. If they miss on estimates and this tumbles, I would entertain bounces in the 132-133 area if it gets there emotionally.
$NFLX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SzBuKevw/
This name really has just been building a very nice, long base up here. I do think the time for a bigger move is near. Would definitely be willing to scoop longs towards the lower trendline. That would put us right around the quarterly pivot at 483.31. But if we were to gap up big, I would possibly be looking to join the trend. These big names can really get big moves when they finally break out of long bases and even though you may be able to catch a nice fade from certain levels of extension, you’re playing a fool’s game picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
$HOG
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Jb7GaeGq/
Have had this idea in previous Sunday Preps for a short idea. You can see it’s beginning to seem like it may play out.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TFtZWToe/
Would be excited for an opportunity to fade a hard spike back tin the underside of the 20d/50d. If they miss on numbers and gap down, I could see the argument for a bounce play off the 200d. But I would also be willing to short a pop back into 43ish if they gap down.
$CROX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FP9kqkEZ/
This has been such a strong chart. I really think if they miss and you get some sort of decent selloff, it’s a great long opp. Probably tons of people that feel they missed the boat on this name just waiting for the day it gives some sort of discount to where it’s trading now. The 2 levels of interest for me are 100-102ish and 83. Will depend on where we open Thursday morning after the numbers come out.
$SNAP
https://www.tradingview.com/x/g1Oz4TJf/
Snapchat has been a name I’ve been swinging and I am still confident we get our targets on the name. So I am using any moves lower as opportunities to add to the swing as well as take daytrades on the name. 55 is the first area of interest on the name and after that it’s the 200d. Under 47.5 and I would stop out of the swing.
$TWTR
https://www.tradingview.com/x/s0Q469lp/
Twitter would be a long opp on a hard flush to the 50d/monthly pivot area around 60. A gap up and spike towards 79-80 would have me looking for the fade.
A bunch of the airlines are reporting this week but with looming covid resurgence headlines and the majority of them having broken charts, will be leaving them off the prep this week. Will revisit the names after earnings are out of the way and the dust starts to settle. But I very well may still trade them. Just wanted to disclaim why they aren’t on the list this week.
That’s it from me this week. Hope you all enjoyed some time away from the screens with family and friends. See you all Monday morning ready to CRUSH it!!!
