Broader Market

$ES /$SPY

Last week we tested the 20d and held, followed by immediately heading right back to ATHs. That 4364 area is gaining some significance. This coming week I will be watching for extension up towards the monthly pivot at 4466.75 as the first area of resistance. After that nothing really stands between us and 4500. Any flushes towards the 20d and that 4364 area will be assumed to be solid support. Flushes to those levels will offer high probability setups for bounce plays on strong stocks pulling back to support. If we breach that 4364 area then I would look to the 50d as the next area where I would expect trustworthy support to show up. 

One key thing to point out though is that the weekly 20sma now lines up with the low from July. Any flush down to those levels will offer support as well. I still think if we break below July’s lows, it’s a significant red flag, but it definitely wouldn’t be the end of the bull run. It’s just one domino that would need to fall in a whole row of dominoes. 

$NQ / $QQQ

Nasdaq still looking mighty healthy as well. Pullbacks to the 20d constantly find buyers and we still keep making new highs. 

I do think that flushes to the 20d continue to hold. It may even hold flushes to the annual pivot right by that psychological 15k level. But….

…if we lose 14849, I can very easily see this tumbling down towards the 50d. 

$BTC

After the breach of the upper channel resistance, we pulled back to the 20d/monthly pivot/annual pivot and held beautifully. It has since bounced and actually made a new high over the previous week’s. This is all very constructive for the Bitcoin bulls, but they still face the 200d which is standing directly in front of them. It also just happens to be in the same area as the weekly 20sma. This could prove quite an area of resistance. We’ll see if they can get through it this week or if they need to retreat a bit to build up some more steam first. 

Sector Strength/Weakness

Boy oh boy did the banks come rolling back hard last week. Utilities was the other notable sector of strength, which is also the sector that has shown the most strength over the last month. 

Long setups 

Strong Stocks Looking for Continuation

$AVIR

I don’t usually put stocks that trade less than 2m shares/day on average on my watchlist but this chart is too sexy to pass up. I’ll be looking for a pullback to the annual pivot just below 30 and the monthly pivot at 29.41  as areas of Interest.

The only real problem I have with this setup is that it already pushed into the weekly 20sma. Therefore it may find quite a bit of resistance here before being able to get the next leg up. But again I think the daily chart is sexy enough to make an exception and still want this trade.  Also, it’s worth noting that the company has a ton of cash and a secondary is not a concern.  It’s also a covid play.

$BYSI

This name is set up perfectly for a squeeze.  it gapped up big Wednesday morning after reporting positive top-line data in late-stage study of lung cancer combo drug. it inevitably pulled in tons of shorts due to its large gap but the stock held relatively well and even pushed up later in the day. the problem is that shorts see that they will most likely raise through a secondary and they get extremely bearish on the stock which in turn makes them hold and become stubborn. but this company will more than likely price the secondary rather strong and shorts will not get bailed out like they’re hoping they will. Friday the price action was really constructive. this coming week I will definitely be watching for any type of weakness that actually ends up trapping more shorts. I will possibly trade this intraday but the real thing I’m interested in is to watch for when they actually announce the secondary to see if there’s a flush to scoop. But I don’t necessarily want to be holding this thing long into the secondary. I would prefer to be flat at that point and then react.

$SBUX

Yes, Starbucks made the list again. Womp womp womp. there’s actually two ideas. Here one is a swing trade and there’s also a way I would day-trade this. The swing trade is illustrated by the red and green shaded long scenario that you see on the chart. Make sure you’re comfortable with this being something that could take weeks to months to play out, but I don’t see a problem with this name getting back to its all-time highs and the risk is so tight here it’s impossible for me to pass it up.  As for the day trade, I would be willing to buy opening flushes down into the 118 area or if it breaks over 119.50 I would be looking to join the trend.

Oversold reversion setups

Nothing really catching my eye for this section

Short Setups

Weak Stocks Looking For Continuation

$Z

Hard to argue the weakness with that big red daily candle after the numbers came out. this name is really just hanging on by a thread. Under 99 and things can get really ugly. so I’ll either be looking for a pot back into 103 to get short, or I will watch for it to crack under 100 and then look to join the trend.

Overbought reversion setups

$MRNA

I’m keeping this one on the list this week but it’s not something I’m in love with as much as I was the last time I had it on this list. The best case scenario for me is that this thing speeds up and actually gets one more push higher to give it a bit more of an extreme look. The other option is for it to make an attempt to take new highs and fail, in essence giving us a lower high and then I may look to anticipate the crack back under 400 with risk over the highs. But in order for me to want to anticipate this I’m going to have to see some real signs of weakness first. Keep in mind, any time you anticipate something the win rate is going to be much lower but in reality it’s worth it sometimes due to the skewed risk reward. If it actually gives us the lower high and confirms it by going back under 393.61, the target is well below down at the 20d.  but make sure you understand it as time passes and it takes a while to move down there with 20d will creep higher.

Earnings

Here is this week’s lineup

$TTD

This has been such a strong name that I’m looking forward to seeing if it gives good opportunities to get long on some sort of overextended selloff on the numbers.  but I get the feeling that even the 20d and the monthly pivot at 78.48 may even be asking too much.  We’ll have to see how it reacts to the numbers but I would be willing to scoop longs on any flush to any of the significant levels. The 20d, the 50d with the monthly pivot, and the quarterly at 68.44, all have my attention. If it gaps up off the numbers I may entertain a fade on a hard spike up into the 100 psychological level, but I would also be looking to buy flushes if it opens anywhere around 95 to 96 and wants to retrace a bit. 

$CHGG

With Chegg I would look too short a hard spike up into the 96-97 area where you have a quarterly and monthly pivot, or I would look to buy a hard flush down into the low 70s where you have a monthly quarterly and annual p[ivot all stacked together.

$AMC

Almost feel like there’s no way to talk about this stock without hurting somebody’s feelings.  So I’m sure this is where the video version of this will get a bunch of thumbs down.  But this is such a broken chart that any spike off the report should be looked at as a gift to hammer short. My first level of interest is close to 42 where you have the monthly pivot which is approaching that upper trend line. If they somehow manage to spike it further than that, 45.50 is the 50d and 45.87 is the quarterly pivot, and you can see recent highs from July in that area as well. I would be polishing Thor’s hammer at that point. But let’s be honest the thing most likely Tanks off the numbers at which point there would be spots where I would buy very emotional flushes. The first area would be around 25 due to the fact that it’s a psychological number and you have the monthly pivot at 26.21.  If it were the gap down further than that 20 is the next level of Interest because it’s a psychological level as well and you have the quarterly pivot at 19.12.  The other way I’ll look to play it if it gaps down big off the numbers is to short any significant pops and join the trend.

$FUBO

I have to admit this chart is set up pretty nice. Last earnings report it spiked about five points, so that would put us right up into that 31 to 32 area which you see we have an annual and monthly pivot. so if the spike to that level is emotional I may look to fade it. But keep in mind that over 28.50 is actually a pretty nice little long trigger, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the break of that level actually sends this thing ripping. If the stock does look strong, I don’t have a problem looking to buy dips and join trend. If they miss on the numbers and it flushes I would entertain longs down by the psychological 20 level which is also right by the monthly and quarterly pivot at 19.50.

$COIN

I really think this chart has shaped up quite nicely. I started a swing long on the name last week in the SEP account. If they gap up off the numbers I would be looking to join trend on dips. I don’t see any reason to try to and fight this on the short side when the daily chart is so set up for this thing to actually get some strength.

$UPST

Last earnings report this thing gapped up 20 points and then sold off the whole day. A 20 point gap would put it right into that 55 area where you have that monthly pivot. A hard spike up into that area and I may entertain a short.  I would also probably look to buy a flush off the numbers if it wanted to dump down towards that 100 level. You have the annual pivot at 98.33 in the monthly at 96.

$U

For Unity software you can see it really has his level up here around the 200 day, let’s call it 115.  A spike into that level and I would probably look to fade it. If it gaps up over that level I would actually look to buy dips into it and see if it wants to hold as support.  If they miss on numbers the two levels I would look for scoops would be the 100 psychological level which is also the quarterly pivot.  And the next level down from there I would be interested in is 95.79 which is a monthly pivot.

$POSH

Depending on where POSH is trading heading into their numbers, I think that it’s going to be a good short opportunity if it spikes up into resistance. If we’re still trading in this 35 area then I would look to hit any spike into the 41 to 43 area.

$DIS

Disney’s in a nice little spot here to make a big move one way or the other. A valid long swing setup was triggered back in July and it’s since retraced back to spots where it’s holding some support here. If the numbers come out and they’re good, this can start it’s trek back up to ATHs. But if they miss, that 167 level is crucial. Underneath that and things can get kind of ugly. If it were to flush down to that 167 area I would take a shot at the long and think that it’s going to at least give a nice bounce even if it eventually does break and head lower. if it spikes off the numbers then I would probably look to buy dips and join trend.

That’s all from me this week guys. I know there’s a ton more names reporting but make sure you familiarize yourself with those charts and have your own plans. I hope you enjoyed your weekend and are feeling fresh and ready to attack the week ahead. Peace