Patience is the key focus this week. Not just patience in waiting for trades to come to me, but patience in letting them work once I have the trade on. Had a lot of trades last week that would have been monsters if I had let them work after getting great entries.
Broader Market
$ES / $SPY
Got the big flush down to the 50d/monthly pivot which held almost to the T. Will be watching for pullbacks to those levels as key support this week. Below that and there’s not much in the way of support till the monthly pivot/annual pivot area around 4270s. We have ATHs as the first area of resistance and after that maybe we finally test that 4500 area.
$NQ / $QQQ
JUST like the it’s S&P counterpart, we got that retrace right to the 50d which held and bounced. And just like the S&P, the idea is the same. Retraces back to those levels will be the used as the key support areas. Below that I would look for July’s lows to be support. To the upside we have ATHs as the first area of resistance and after that we have the monthly pivot at 15244.75.
$BTC
Bitcoin staying bullish here with continued higher lows followed by higher highs. We are now testing that ever-so important psychological level, 50k. If they can get through here and continue to push, the next area of interest is the quarterly pivot at 57k which is a retest of the last long trigger it had before the big fail that resulted in the crypto rolling over. On the downside I see the annual pivot/monthly pivot/200d /20d area as an area of very high probability support. Very interested to see what happens moving forward as some of the crypto-related equities have began to shape up for some possible trades as well. Those would be names such as $MARA, $RIOT, $COIN, $CAN, $SOS, etc.
Sector Analysis
One thing that is important to point out is the fact that each week I look at all the different sector ETFs to see their charts. Just because something had a down week doesn’t mean that I’m not interested in it. Look at the Financial sector for example. They were down over 2% for the week. But then look at the $XLF chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bg2RAmM9/
You can see it’s really just pulled back to support and is still looking very bullish. Contrast that with the Energy sector via the XLE chart.
This is a completely broken chart in my opinion. But that doesn’t necessarily mean I want to short energy names this week. Something this sold off may need a nice relief bounce first. So I have alerts set for when the XLE pushes back into the underside of the daily 20sma. THEN I might be looking for shorts on energy names.
LONG SETUPS
Strong Stocks Looking For Continuation
$NVDA
Remember what was said about this name last week in the standalone webinar for “How to Prepare for Earnings Plays”? If not, go an watch it here: https://truetrader.wistia.com/medias/ity0tjayai
After the big pullback from earnings this chart is looking a lot nicer now. Of course I would prefer a longer base to be built. But we don’t always get what we want. I can really see this being 220-225 near-term. Looking for a quick pullback/morning weakness to put us right in that 202 area for a scoop. If instead wants to gap up or just push hard off the open, I will be patient for retests of the 52w highs to see if a trend starts to form. This has a lot of range and can fall apart even on strong days if the market decides to get weak. So NO CHASING!!!
$COF
Straight from the sector analysis section, financial sector looks like it’s pulled back to support and this name is simultaneously retesting it’s recent breakout area as well as the 20d/monthly pivot. Will look to get long with risk under Friday’s lows.
Oversold Reversion Setups
$VRM
This is straight from last week’s Sunday Prep. Same idea, still looking for that 22-23 to see if a hard flush down there holds for a bounce play.
$BABA
Really impressive how far this has come in. Typically I keep china names off the Sunday Prep, but I think this is becoming quite the opportunity. We have now retraced to the 61.8% fib level
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NqqLN7sa/
Will be watching for capitulation down into that quarterly pivot area of 144-145. It may gap up in which case I will possibly look to get long and risk Friday’s lows.
SHORT SETUPS
Weak Stocks Looking For Continuation
$BLNK
This is flirting with a major breakdown if it loses July’s lows. I have an alert set for if we breach those levels so that I can look to join trend. But if we were to pop back towards the 20d at any point in the next week I will look to fade that pop.
$FUBO
Another chart flirting with a nasty short trigger if it were to lose 24.52. If that happens I will definitely be looking to join trend. It should have room down to 19 at least (near-term). If it pops to the underside of the 20d, I will hit that as well.
$ARKK
This was in the Sunday Prep 2 weeks ago for a short and so far it’s come in quite nicely. Would prefer pops back into resistance to hammer short, but if we were to break 113.27 I would probably start shorting pops joining trend. Michael Burry recently came out publicly about being short this and if I had to pick between him and Cathie Wood, it’s really a no-brainer. Love to know that the king of due diligence says that the fundamentals match what I’m seeing in the chart. LFG!!!
Overbought Reversion Setups
$A
Honestly would like this to get higher and look more extreme, but you have to look at historically how this name has acted every time it’s pulled away from the 20d in this fashion. Will watch for intraday lower highs to show signs of weakness and the ability to have defined risk. If it can somehow extend further, I will be stalking for the same thing. Always be patient for the author (price) to TELL you it’s ready. No need to be first.
$BLL
Keeping this one on watch for a hard shove towards 97-100.
