Sunday Prep: SPY on Its 200-Day, CPI Tuesday, Cisco and Applied Thursday
Hey all. Last week was the kind you want to forget and shouldn't. The election rally on Wednesday lasted exactly one day, Thursday took it all back and then some, and QQQ finished the week down 5.0% with the chip fund (SMH) down 11.2%. SPY ended Friday sitting a few dollars above its 200-day moving average, which is the one line on the chart it hasn't closed under since at least May.
This week is quieter on paper and louder where it counts. October's inflation report lands Tuesday morning, with a Fed that's leaning toward a hike in December. Cisco and Applied Materials both report Thursday night, into charts that have already broken. And the producer price report follows Friday morning. I don't know which way any of it goes. I don't need to. I need to know what I'll do in each case.
Ok, let's get into it. Data runs through the Friday, Nov 6 close, charts are daily unless noted, and all times are Eastern.
The calendar first
Start here every week. I use the calendar to find the hours when the market is likely to be thin and jumpy, and the names that can gap 10% overnight, so I can size for it or stay out.
One odd thing about Tuesday's report: it won't have a year-over-year rate for overall prices, because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year's government shutdown, so there's nothing to compare against (StockTitan). The monthly change is what you'll see. Forecasts cluster around 0.2–0.3% for the month, and the Cleveland Fed's nowcast puts the yearly rate near 3.7%. It's the last CPI before the Fed's Dec 9 decision, and Morningstar and others describe a December hike as the market's base case. Goolsbee and Barkin are confirmed by their own banks; other Fed calendars list more speakers on Monday, at times that don't agree, so check before you lean on them. No ECB, BoJ or BoE decision this week as far as I can find.
Look at where the weight sits. Tuesday morning is the inflation number. Wednesday the bond market is shut, so the market that usually argues with the stock market about a CPI print is closed the day after one. Thursday night has Cisco and Applied Materials. Friday morning has PPI. If you're holding something overnight this week, Thursday into Friday is the night to think hardest about: two reports and a data release, back to back, in about 16 hours.
Where the indexes sit
Name the timeframe before you name the level. On the daily chart, SPY fell 4.4% on Thursday and dropped straight through the Oct 30 low at 750.36, which had been the floor for a week. Thursday's low was 732.71. The 200-day sits at 730.38. Friday was an inside day, a range of 734.58–742.21 entirely inside Thursday's, and it closed at 735.29. So SPY is on the line, not under it. That matters, because it hasn't closed under the 200-day anywhere on this chart, which goes back to May.
Is QQQ in better shape? No. It closed under its 200-day on Thursday for the first time on this chart, and again on Friday. Thursday it closed on its low at 647.05, the lowest print on the six-month chart. Friday was an inside day too, bouncing to 656.10. That's still about 3.6% under the 200-day at 680.89. Down 5.0% on the week and 12.2% on the month, RSI 31.
The chips are still doing the damage. SMH has closed under its own 200-day five days running, and it's down 23.6% on the month. Small caps (IWM) and the Dow fund (DIA) held up better on the week, down 2.0% and 0.9%, but both are under their 50-day, and IWM is back under its 200-day too. VXX, the volatility fund, is up 14.3% on the week. People are paying up for insurance. After a 4% day on SPY, that's sensible, not panic.
Where the money is going
Rank the eleven sector funds by how they've done over the last month. This is the fastest way I know to see what the market is actually rewarding, as opposed to what everyone on TV is talking about.
Same seesaw as last week, just with a heavier kid on the end. Technology is down 16.7% on the month, and it's the biggest weight in the index, so SPY fell 5.0% even though seven sectors are up 5% or more. Health care leads at +9.9%, then staples at +8.0% and real estate at +7.7%. On the week, the surprise was energy, down 12.0%, the worst of the eleven, with the refiners on the oversold list to show for it. Communication services bounced 4.9% on the week but is still down 6.5% on the month.
What do I do with that? On the long side, I fish where the fish are: staples and the steadier consumer names. On the short side, I lean on the broken tech charts instead of fighting the strong groups. And I remember that one CPI number can flip a rotation like this for a few days. That's what the if/thens are for.
Earnings: which ones get a plan
Not every report deserves your attention. I care about the ones that move the indexes, and the ones that report into a level that matters. This week that's four names, and three of them are AI-infrastructure plays reporting from deep under their 200-day moving average. Look at the "vs 200-day" column. CoreWeave is down 43% on the month. Applied Materials is down 35%. Cisco is down 18%. Take-Two is the odd one out: up 13% on the week, ten days before its Nov 19 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, and still just under its own 200-day.
| Name | Reports | Close | vs 200-day | ATR | Last 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTWO | Mon after closeMon AMC | 214.87 | −1.9% | 6.93 | |
| CRWV | Tue after closeTue AMC | 46.40 | −48.5% | 5.67 | |
| CSCO | Thu after closeThu AMC | 93.85 | −7.8% | 3.54 | |
| AMAT | Thu after closeThu AMC | 332.71 | −25.3% | 23.11 |
ATR is the average true range: how far the stock typically moves in a day, averaged over the last 14 sessions. CoreWeave's ATR is 5.67 on a 46.40 stock, about 12% of the price, before it even reports. Size for that.
My approach on these is boring on purpose. I don't hold a full position through the print. The morning after, I give it the first 15–30 minutes, then let the chart tell me. If it gaps up and holds above the gap, I'm interested in the first pullback that holds. If it gaps and fades back into the prior day's range, I leave it alone or look for the short. Same rule in reverse on a gap down.
Applied Materials is the one I'd study first, because it speaks for the whole chip group, and the chip group is what's dragging QQQ. It reports Thursday after the close (the call is at 4:30). It closed Friday at 332.71, after a 13.6% drop on Thursday to a low of 316.95, the lowest print on our six-month chart. Friday bounced to 348.71 and gave most of it back. The ATR is 23.11, about 7% of the price.
The four lists
Every week I run the same four scans. Strong stocks for continuation. Oversold stocks for a bounce. Weak stocks for continuation lower. Overbought stocks for a reversion. Then I throw out most of what comes back. The scan finds candidates; the chart decides.
This week the scans ran on 487 US stocks over $10 that trade at least $150 million a day. Three came back strong, nine oversold, eight weak and three overbought. Below are two from each that I'd actually make a plan for, and why. None of them report this week. These are daily charts, for holds of a few days, and after a week like the last one, I'm running smaller than usual.
Strong, for continuation
Leaders in the groups that are leading.
Staples are the second-best sector on the month (+8.0%), and Coca-Cola is the most boring way to own that. It beat and raised its full-year guidance on Oct 27, per its release, and made a new 52-week high on Thursday at 97.39, on the day SPY fell 4.4%. Friday is the candle I like. It opened at 93.21, dipped to 93.00, and closed at 95.67, near the top of the day. Buyers took the whole dip back in one session. Leaders lead. ATR is 1.96, about 2% of the price, so this is a slow mover; size it like one.
Consumer discretionary is up 5.3% on the month and 1.9% on the week, one of five sectors that went up last week. Hilton reported Oct 27 (comparable RevPAR, revenue per available room, up 5.8%, per its filing), and the chart has done the talking since: up 14.6% on the month, with every average stacked the right way. Thursday it made a new 52-week high at 381.34, then got pulled down with the market and closed at 369.64. Friday held up and closed at 370.45. It trades thin by shares (about 3,100 a minute), so use limit orders and don't size up. ATR is 10.26, about 2.8%.
Berkshire reported on Saturday morning, so Monday is the first session that trades on it. Per its release, third-quarter operating earnings were $12.7 billion, against $13.5 billion a year ago. Insurance underwriting fell to $1.35 billion from $2.37 billion, while the railroad, the energy business and the manufacturing, service and retail group all earned more. The line I'd watch: it bought back about $9.6 billion of its own stock in the quarter. Skip the headline net earnings number; Berkshire itself calls quarterly investment gains "usually meaningless."
The chart went into the report strong. Wednesday it opened at 566.30 and closed at 579.09. Thursday it made a new 52-week high at 586.30, then gave back less than the market did and closed at 572.33. Friday dipped to 559.61 and closed at 570.89. RSI is 74, so it's stretched going into a news gap. It trades thin by shares (about 6,200 a minute), so use limit orders. ATR is 10.28, about 1.8%.
Oversold, for a bounce
Uptrends that got hit hard and are heading for the 200-day.
Reported Nov 2 after the close and fell from 178.34 that day to 154.99 by Thursday. Thursday's low, 152.60, dipped just under the 200-day (153.53) and closed back over it. Friday was an inside day, a range of 157.24–163.97 inside Thursday's. So the long-term trend got tested and held, and then nobody pushed. Is it a buy? Not yet. It's a level with a plan. ATR is 9.95, about 6% of the price, so a normal day is a big day here.
Down 6.2% on the month, which is mild next to the rest of tech, but it closed Friday at 213.65, near the day's low of 211.00, which is also last week's low. That's no bounce yet. The 200-day is at 198.22, about 7% below, and that's the whole idea: the long-term trend is intact, the short-term one is heavy. ATR is 9.50, about 4.4%. Salesforce hasn't announced its next report date; calendars put it in early December.
Also on the list: NTRA, MPC, HPE, VLO, PANW, PSX, SNOW. MPC, VLO and PSX are the refiners that dragged energy down last week. Several of these report in the next few weeks; check first.
Weak, for continuation lower
Downtrends making new lows with no sign of a turn.
Reported Oct 28 after the close and fell from 321.89 to 282.32 the next day, down 12.3%. Since then it's spent seven sessions in a box, 272.00–294.40, under every moving average it has. The 52-week low is 271.41, right under the floor of the box. Communication services bounced 4.9% on the week and Alphabet barely joined in. That's the tell for me. When the group lifts and the biggest name in it doesn't, the box tends to break in the direction of the trend.
Technology is the worst sector on the month (−16.7%), and Broadcom is one of the biggest pieces of it. It fell 10.4% on Thursday, opened Friday at 311.13, and closed at 293.69, just over the new 52-week low it set during the day (289.77). Every moving average is stacked overhead, 10-day under 20-day under 50-day under 200-day, and it's about 41% off its 52-week high. ATR is 15.14, about 5% of the price, so give a stop room. Broadcom hasn't announced its next report date; calendars project mid-December.
Also on the list: CLS, FIS, CARR, NFLX, HBAN, COIN.
Overbought, for a reversion
Stretched far above the 20-day. Patience required.
Reported Nov 4 after the close (revenue up 55% to $2.18 billion, per its release), gapped from 271.75 to open Thursday at 349.83, and ran again Friday to 398.00. Up 71% on the week. It's 5.6 ATRs above its 20-day. Here's the odd part: it's still under its 200-day, at 409.30, and 47% under its 52-week high. So this is a beaten-down stock that got a big report, not a leader at the top. Fresh reports like this can stay stretched a lot longer than a short can stay comfortable. Guessing the top is how shorts get run over.
Reported Nov 3 and gapped from Monday's close at 51.93 to open at 56.53, then kept going. Up 26% on the week, RSI 82, and 5.1 ATRs above its 20-day. Is it overbought? Very. Do I want to short it here? No. The last three sessions closed within about a dollar of each other, 62.05–62.88, which is the stock catching its breath, not rolling over. It's thin by dollars (about $0.7 million a minute), so keep it small and use limits.
Also on the list: VFC.
Your turn
That's a lot of levels, and none of them are a reason to trade. They're places where I've decided in advance what I'll do. The work for you is the same: pull up these charts yourself, decide where you'd be interested, decide where you'd be wrong, and decide how big you can be given the ATR. Then one more thing. Write down 730.38 on SPY and 680.89 on QQQ. At 10:30 on Tuesday, after CPI, note which side of each it's on. SPY over and QQQ under, and this is still a tech problem, not a market problem. Both under, and cash is a position. Decide now which one you'd act on.
Capital preservation is E V E R Y T H I N G. Have a great Sunday and I'll see you bright and early.
Cheers.
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How the lists were built
- Strong: price above the 20-day, the 20-day above the 50-day and the 50-day above the 200-day; within 3% of the 52-week high; 14-day RSI between 55 and 76. Ranked by three-month performance.
- Oversold: still above the 200-day; RSI under 35; at least 10% off the 20-day high.
- Weak: the strong stack upside down; within 5% of the 52-week low; RSI between 22 and 45.
- Overbought: RSI over 75 and at least 2.5 ATRs above the 20-day.
RSI (relative strength index) measures how stretched recent moves are on a 0–100 scale. Report dates for Take-Two, CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials, and the past report dates for the featured names, were checked against company announcements, filings and news reports on Nov 8. Salesforce and Broadcom haven't announced their next dates; calendars project early to mid December. Dates for the other names on the lists were not checked, so check before you trade them. Educational if/then levels only; not advice, and not a record of any trade.