Sunday Prep: The Fed, Five Big Reports and a Market Buying Defense
Hey all. Big week. The Fed decides on Wednesday, the quarter's GDP and the Fed's favorite inflation number land Thursday morning, and between Wednesday and Thursday night Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Sandisk all report after the bell. That is a lot of air to fly through in three days.
So the plan this week is simple. Know where the events sit, know the handful of levels where the indexes change character, and have an if/then for every name you care about before the bell on Monday. I don't know which way any of this breaks. Neither does anyone else. We don't need to. We need to know what we'll do in each case.
Ok, let's get into it. Data runs through the Friday, Oct 23 close, charts are daily unless noted, and all times are Eastern.
The calendar first
Start here every week. I use the calendar to find the hours when the market is likely to be thin and jumpy, and the names that can gap 8% overnight, so I can size for it or stay out.
The consensus for Wednesday is a hold at 3.75–4.00%. Rate futures price roughly a one-in-ten chance of a hike. Apple has not confirmed its date yet; one calendar has it on Monday, Nov 2. Meta already reported on Oct 21.
Read that strip again and look at where the weight sits. Wednesday at 2:00 PM through Thursday night is where the week gets decided. Monday and Tuesday often trade like a waiting room before a Fed day. If you find yourself chasing a breakout on Tuesday afternoon, ask yourself whether you'd still want it at 2:01 on Wednesday.
Where the indexes sit
Name the timeframe before you name the level. On the daily chart, SPY spent last week below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and closed Friday at 759.97, just above the week's low. Zoom out and it's still well above the 200-day, which is at 727. So we're in a pullback inside an uptrend. Nothing broken yet. Nothing fixed either.
Is QQQ in better shape? No. It's down 5% on the month, below both moving averages, and closed Friday on its weekly low. The semiconductors are the reason. SMH is down 12% in a month and is now about 2% above its own 200-day. That 200-day matters a lot this week, with Intel and Sandisk reporting into it.
One more thing worth a look. Small caps (IWM) were up 2% last week while QQQ fell. IWM is still under both its 50-day and its 200-day, so I wouldn't call it a turn. But money leaving mega-cap tech and showing up somewhere else is a theme, and the sector chart below shows it plainly. VXX, the volatility fund, is up 6.5% on the month. That reads like people paying for insurance ahead of a heavy week. I wouldn't call it panic.
Where the money is going
Rank the eleven sector funds by how they've done over the last month. This is the fastest way I know to see what the market is actually rewarding, as opposed to what everyone on TV is talking about.
Energy, utilities, staples and health care. Read that list out loud. It's what the market buys when it wants to keep its money in stocks but doesn't want to own the exciting ones. Meanwhile technology and communication services, the two biggest weights in the index, are at the bottom. That's why the averages look tired even though the majority of sectors are up on the month.
What do I do with that? Two things. On the long side, I'd rather fish where the fish are: the strong names this week come from energy and health care. On the short side, I'd rather lean on the weak groups than fight the strong ones. And I keep in mind that this kind of rotation can flip on one big earnings report, which is exactly what Wednesday and Thursday night are.
Earnings: which ones get a plan
Not every report deserves your attention. I care about the ones that move the indexes, and the ones that report into a level that matters. This week, all five big reporters qualify. Three of them (Amazon, Intel and Sandisk) closed Friday within 2% of their 200-day moving average, and Alphabet is already below it. That matters. A report that lands right on the 200-day either confirms it as support or breaks it, and both are worth a plan.
| Name | Reports | Close | vs 200-day | ATR | Last 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Wed after close | 524.51 | +20.2% | 11.04 | |
| GOOGL | Wed after close | 320.21 | −6.2% | 8.39 | |
| AMZN | Thu after close | 248.00 | +1.9% | 7.08 | |
| INTC | Thu after close | 86.96 | +1.3% | 5.45 | |
| SNDK | Thu after close | 1238 | +0.1% | 95.05 | |
| META | Reported Oct 21 | 642.62 | +1.6% | 25.28 |
ATR is the average true range: how far the stock typically moves in a day, averaged over the last 14 sessions. A $95 ATR on Sandisk means a normal day is a 7–8% swing before it even reports. Size for that.
My approach on these is boring on purpose. I don't hold a full position through the print. The morning after, I give it the first 15–30 minutes, then let the chart tell me. If it gaps up and holds above the gap, I'm interested in buying the first pullback that holds. If it gaps and fades back into the prior day's range, I leave it alone or look for the short. Same rule in reverse on a gap down.
Two charts I'd look at closely. GOOGL is already below its 200-day (341) after a 6% down week, so it reports from a position of weakness. A strong report gives it a clear level to reclaim. A weak one confirms the break. META reported last week, dropped 9%, and closed Friday just above its 200-day (632.53). Watch how it behaves there while its peers report. It's a free read on how the market is treating big tech numbers.
The four lists
Every week I run the same four scans. Strong stocks for continuation. Oversold stocks for a bounce. Weak stocks for continuation lower. Overbought stocks for a reversion. Then I throw out most of what comes back. The scan finds candidates; the chart decides.
This week the scans ran on 711 US stocks over $10 that trade at least $150 million a day. Four lists, fifty-five strong names, eight oversold, thirty-eight weak, twenty-nine overbought. Below are two from each that I'd actually make a plan for, and why. These are daily charts, for holds of a few days.
Strong, for continuation
Leaders in the groups that are leading.
Up 15% last week and printed a new 52-week high at 351.21. Health care is the fourth-best sector on the month, so this is a leader in a group that is leading. The catch is that it closed 2.6 ATRs above its 20-day. Extended on the daily, so I care a lot about how I get in.
Energy is the best sector on the month (+10.8%) and APA closed Friday a hair under the 52-week high it set that same day, 52.39. Same story as CRL: strong, but stretched, 3.4 ATRs above the 20-day.
Also on the list: RBRK, GTLB, HALO, HNGE, PBR, EQNR, PR. TEAM screened strong too, but may report this week; check first.
Oversold, for a bounce
Uptrends that got hit hard and are testing the 200-day.
Down 16% in a month with the rest of the AI hardware trade. Still above its 200-day at 163.77, and that’s the whole idea. The long-term trend is intact; the short-term one is a mess. Bounces off the 200-day in a stock like this can be sharp, and they can also just fail. Keep it small and keep it quick, because it reports next Tuesday.
Fell 12% in a month and spent Friday right on its 200-day (313.75). It dipped to 305.01 intraday and closed near the high of the day. That’s buyers defending a level everyone can see. One day doesn’t make a bottom, but it gives a clear line to lean on. Keysight’s fiscal year ends Oct 31, so it won’t report this week.
Also on the list: ALAB, DXCM, UMC, FCX. INTC and SNDK screened oversold too, but both report Thursday, so they live in the earnings section.
Weak, for continuation lower
Downtrends making new lows with no sign of a turn.
Down about 65% from its 52-week high and closed Friday at 260.25, just above the new 52-week low it made that day (258.32). Every moving average is stacked overhead and falling. Is it oversold? On the RSI, almost. Do I want to buy it? No. Stocks like this tend to get cheaper before they get interesting.
From 152 to 26 in a year, down 31% in the last month alone, closing Friday on a fresh 52-week low (26.07). For sizing, look at the ATR. It’s 2.09, about 8% of the price. A stop over Friday’s high is tighter than one normal day’s noise, so either size way down or use a wider stop.
Also on the list: MTZ, QBTS, MGM, FN, NRG, IREN, BIDU, RGTI. MTZ and MGM may report this week; check first.
Overbought, for a reversion
Stretched far above the 20-day. Patience required.
Beat and raised on Oct 20 and went up 19% on the week, closing at the high. RSI near 88, nearly 6 ATRs above its 20-day. That’s about as stretched as a large company gets. Fresh guidance raises can stay stretched a lot longer than a short can stay comfortable. So I wait for it to crack. Guessing the top is how shorts get run over.
Beat its own guidance on Oct 22, gapped up from 398.92 to an open near 407.78, and kept going to 444.77 on Friday. Gaps like that often get revisited eventually. Eventually is the important word. The stock is still about 9% under its 52-week high (483), so this isn’t a blow-off at the top of a range.
Also on the list: PTC, BRZE, WCN, TRI, LMT, CTAS, CHKP. WM, TW and CHKP may report this week; check first.
Your turn
That's a lot of levels, and none of them are a reason to trade. They're places where I've decided in advance what I'll do. The work for you is the same work: pull up these charts yourself, decide where you'd be interested, decide where you'd be wrong, and decide how big you can be given the ATR. If a name doesn't fit your risk, it isn't on your list. Simple as that.
And respect the calendar. The best plan in the world gets a lot worse when you put it on twenty minutes before the Fed.
Capital preservation is E V E R Y T H I N G. Have a great Sunday and I'll see you bright and early.
Cheers.
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How the lists were built
- Strong: price above the 20-day, the 20-day above the 50-day and the 50-day above the 200-day; within 3% of the 52-week high; 14-day RSI between 55 and 76. Ranked by three-month performance.
- Oversold: still above the 200-day; RSI under 35; at least 10% off the 20-day high.
- Weak: the strong stack upside down; within 5% of the 52-week low; RSI between 22 and 45.
- Overbought: RSI over 75 and at least 2.5 ATRs above the 20-day.
RSI (relative strength index) measures how stretched recent moves are on a 0–100 scale. Earnings dates for the featured names were checked against company announcements and news reports on Oct 26. Dates for the other names on the lists were not, so check before you trade them.