Last week we kind of harped on the fact that to be successful in this career, you need to have a bigger purpose; a “why.” And what better way to illustrate the importance of trading being a means to an end than a 3-day weekend? I still remember back a few years when I would always dread 3-day weekends. I laugh now at my ignorance. But still to this day I hear traders echo that same sentiment. They just can’t wait for Tuesday to get here. Time is our most precious possession and it is at all times fleeting from us. Tuesday will get here. Just calm your tits. But at the same time, enjoy your time away from the screens. Go out and create memories. The last thing you want is to be on your deathbed and have terrible regrets about how much time you squandered.
Hopefully you all caught last Thursday’s episode of “Method & Mindset” with me and Kim Ann Curtin (@kimanncurtin), “The Wall Street Coach.” If you didn’t, make sure to go and watch it, as well as the previous episode where we help a struggling trader tackle both the psychological and technical sides of trading. They can be found on the @TrueTraderNET Instagram page. Also, we set up a website to host a TON of FREE content on both topics. All you have to do is go to www.methodandmindset.com, create a free account, and begin watching! You’re going to love it.
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$ES / $SPY
Last week was a pretty narrow range for what we’ve been seeing. Doesn’t necessarily mean anything. We’ve seen a decent move up so some digestion isn’t a surprise. Will be using under last week’s lows as the first area to think we see a bigger flush lower. The area I’m interested in seeing tested is the 20d as it lines up almost perfectly with the monthly pivot now. Below that the 50d also lines up beautifully with the next monthly pivot as well as the quarterly pivot. 4600 is the first real area above that I am interested in as possible resistance. The monthly timeframe chart continues to give caution, but not going to let it deter me from getting long on legit setups.
$NQ / $QQQ
Under last week’s lows and I think we see the 20d pretty quickly. But on that same token, above last week’s highs and we could just as easily see 16k in a blink. Those are both the areas I would look for support and resistance as well.
Nothing to see here folks. The trend is intact and everything continues to look healthy. All dips to support still keep getting bought up and making new highs. May need to consolidate for a little while just above the 200d before getting ready to make its next big push higher. 57k still looms as the first real area that might present a test.
Financials had a tough week, and what I don’t like was it was immediately after breaking out to new ATHs. We’re still right into areas of support, but will be monitoring the situation closely. Real Estate was the standout last week, followed by Health Care (which was the sector we pointed out last week as one to watch for upside potential). Energy still struggles, which was another one we pointed out last week. Looks like Energy could easily have some more downside if $XLE loses the 200d again. Will be monitoring that one as well.
Strong Stocks Looking For Continuation
Can’t argue with a candle like that one! Sheesh. 50% retrace puts us just below 69 which was also an area of consolidation from Friday. It ALSO happens to be the new weekly pivot that will be here starting tomorrow. (that’s right, I went and preemptively calculated the new week’s pivots, you’re welcome). And dip down to 69 or slightly below will be looked at as an opp to scoop a long on the name.
I would be a complete moron to not have this name in here this week. We are finally breaking out of this really long base. I’m just hoping the name gives a decent pullback before setting sail into the 700s. Would really like to see a retest of the 568-570 area so we can look for support.
Technically this setup won’t confirm until over 331.66 (check charts with pre/post-market data to see why), but I like the look here especially when you consider the weekly chart with it. Think it could see 338 quickly and after that ATHs within striking distance.
The setup is there to take this name back to ATHs. Technically needs over 418.44 to confirm the long trigger, but don’t think that’s going to be a problem if the momentum continues.
Will need to see some retests of key levels hold before being interested. First area of interest would be the recent breakout level of $414, but would much prefer a retest of $400/20d.
Oversold Reversion Setups
Typically I prefer names in this section to be sold off quite a bit more, but I really really like this name in general and think this might be a really great buying opp, even for longer-term accounts. Currently the way I will play it is to buy any opening weakness risking under last week’s lows. But if we continue lower, I would love a shot at buying this around 270. If the trend reverses from here and proves to hold, I will look to join trend and most likely have a swing mindset.
Weak Stocks Looking For Continuation
If you remember a month or 2 back, this was shared as a short idea, and it’s really behaved nicely since. She struggles every time she pushes back up into the 20d and the 200d. I think now, if she breaks under 38.73, this could have quite a bit more downside.
This was the chart posted a long time ago that got our attention on this as a short candidate.
This recently had a long trigger that should have given it a nice push higher, but it failed and rolled back over, going and breaking recent lows. Failed long triggers give way to the best short triggers, ALWAYS remember that. It also makes a lot of sense to see this have such weakness at the same time Netflix is heading into beastmode. Will be watching for any pops back into tree-fiddy as short opps.
Major short trigger last Friday on that 49 crack. Will be looking for all pops back into 50D/200d to find sellers and roll back over. I don’t usually do this, but I am intimately familiar with this name and if the speculation is correct, my $4/share valuation is GENEROUS. LOL.
Overbought Reversion Setups
Nothing really grabs my attention for this particular setup heading into next week.