Hope all the men reading this have some sweet looking upper lips as we have completed week 1 of Movember, and hopefully all the women reading this have been finding creative ways to ignore all the childish stuff us men do.
I want to quickly talk about something. I have been going through some health issues. I have been seeing doctors and they have not been able to identify what it is that is going on. All of my lab work has come back completely normal, ultrasounds reveal no issues, EKGs, x-rays, you name it, the whole schebang, nothing. That is until just recently. It turns out that they now believe all of these physical ailments that I’ve been experiencing may actually be stress/anxiety induced. In other words, from my job. The doctor literally told me that some people will take extreme emotional pain or stress that their minds can’t handle, and turn it into actual physical pain. And that is what they believe is happening in my case.
Believe it or not, this actually comes as a pretty big relief to me, which confused the doctor. When they asked why that made me feel relieved, I responded “because doc, if all of these problems are from stress or anxiety, then it’s fixable! As opposed to something like cancer or something terrible like that, which may not be.”
So why on earth would I be telling you such personal details about my life? Simple, I want you to all know how important our mental health is, especially in this profession. Think about it. We stress out about the markets all the time, which can in turn make you underperform, which then leads to more stress, which then makes you perform even worse. It can quickly snowball out of control. So please, please, please prioritize your mental health. This is not an easy career that we have chosen and we need to do everything in our power to make sure we can survive and thrive.
Speaking of mental health, this Thursday at 5pm EST is our next episode of Method & Mindset. Me and Kim Ann Curtin, TheWallStreetCoach, will be bringing on another new trader and trying to help them tackle any issues they may be having in their trading from both the mental and technical side. As always, that is on the TrueTraderNET Instagram channel.
In the meantime, don’t forget to head over to www.methodandmindset.com and watch all of the free content that we’ve put up over there. Hours upon hours of webinars covering both mental and technical aspects of trading.
$ES / $SPY
The S&P continues to grind higher. It seems to be starting to speed up, but it’s still kind of a grind. I would really love to see a blow off top so we can finally get a much needed pullback to some levels of support. Healthy moves need to have pullbacks. When we just go straight up like this, the move becomes more and more unsustainable. The 20d lines up nicely with the recent breakout area to new ATHs. That is the first level of support I’m looking for. Below that is the 50d.
There are so many levels of support below us that I am not really worried about any major correction just yet. There are a lot of dominoes that would need to fall first before we start having that conversation. But we very well may get a decent pullback and you don’t want to be starting new long positions up here only to have the market take you out of them.
As far as levels of resistance above, there is Friday’s highs, but above that we don’t have anything until around 4800.
$NQ / $QQQ
The Nasdaq has started to speed up a bit more than the S&P in my opinion, but I do still think it could have an even faster move up that would help us to get that blow-off top. Again, TONS of support below, so pullbacks to the 20d and 50d will be where I start to look for buyers to show up. Above we have the psychological level of 17k which is also around the annual pivot and the quarterly pivot.
Bitcoin remains looking really bullish. Nothing new to add from last week’s notes. Just make sure that you are prepared to take advantage of any of those crazy flushes that BTC offers from time to time that cause the crypto-related equities to flush down into levels as well. These can offer extremely amazing opportunities to scoop things like $MARA, $RIOT, or $COIN and they typically bounce right back with Bitcoin. But you have to be prepared for it. Either keep those charts up or set price alerts. But whatever you do, you don’t want to miss out on those.
Consumer Discretionary continues to extend even higher. This is really setting up for an A+ short in the very near-term.
The same can be said about the tech sector.
Energy ($XLE) and Financials ($XLF) both have nice little high and tight flags built right on top of their daily 20s.
(Disclaimer: all long ideas this week are strictly for day trades. I will not be initiating any new swings on the long side until the market takes a breather)
Strong Stocks Looking for Continuation
Big beat on earnings last week and we got a beautiful daily candle on the name. Will be watching for a weak open to start and hold around 194-195. You have a monthly pivot in there as well as about a 50% retrace of the daily candle. Ideally this doesn’t give back more than ½ of Friday if it’s going to remain strong.
Hate them or love them, the chart looks to be setting up. Will be watching for a flush into that quarterly pivot area around 31 for a bounce play. There are a lot of other spots lower where I would take the same shot, but won’t be building into the position if it doesn’t want to work at the first level. Will simply stop out and revisit.
Oversold Reversion Setups
Fresh off an earnings miss, SEVERELY over-leveraged, and in a complete freefall. What’s not to love?! LOL. Regardless, if this sells off down towards $25 or lower, I’ll be watching for a relief bounce day.
Weak Stocks Looking for Continuation
Thinking if this spikes hard up into the 126 level that it should give a nice fade opp. Stacked monthly/quarterly pivot area as well as the descending 20d coming down into it.
Pop back into the underside of the 20d/annual pivot is where I’m thinking we get a good short opp. Hoping it can spike up into the level as opposed to grind up there.
Initial reaction on the earnings report was a move lower and they spiked it up the next morning in the premarket and then it sold off all day. I think this could potentially unwind down towards the monthly 20sma with 200 acting as a magnet. I would like to be fading a hard pop back towards 250.
Overbought Reversion Setups
Not too often this name gets this much separation from the 20d. The higher the better but will be stalking for lower highs and a spot to get involved with defined risk.
Just a 700b market cap trading 20% above the 20d. Nothing to see here folks. Daily looks toppy up here so will be ready to throw this trade on with risk over the recent highs. But pay attention to the fact that it’s held the 120min20 this WHOLE move up. So if we get back to those levels, we may hold and base for another attempt at highs. Always manage risk!
What’s crazier than a 700b market cap company trading 20% above the 20d? How about a 1.2 TRILLION market cap company trading 20% over the 20d!?!?! Insane times we are living in. But the difference here is that this name has already had some pullbacks that held. As crazy as this sounds, I would actually like to see this head higher first. Yeah, I am one sick son of a….
Waiting to see what the author wants to write.