- BROADER MARKET
- LONG SETUPS
- SHORT SETUPS
- EARNINGS PLAYS
$ES / $SPY
Exactly as predicted last week, the ES tumbled right down to our low 4100s when we lost the previous week’s lows. But the probe down there proved to find buyers and it was defended very well. Afterwards we put in a nice long trigger that took us right back to all-time highs and higher. So the trend remains intact and everything still looks healthy. Interested to see what happens if we shove hard into the 4270ish area. If we do, I will be looking for extended names that offer a nice edge for reversion trades.
If instead we flush down and test 4200ish, I will be looking for longs on strong names that have also been holding some key levels.
$NQ / $QQQ
The Nasdaq remains sluggish and is still attempting to find it’s footing to try and catch up to the ES/SPY. Friday rejected the underside of the 20d pretty convincingly. Until we can reclaim that level, I see no real reason to be bullish on the index or any of its components. The big names that reported earnings over the last 2 weeks still haven’t caught a real bid and as we mentioned last week, if this composite is to get some strength, the leaders need to LEAD. If we loses last week’s lows, not very confident that the 50d can save it.
So far the comeback looks to be giving its best attempt. Not only did they reclaim the 20d/50d, but they also triggered a valid long with the break over $56476. This long needs to take this back to highs though. If it can’t and then we come back down and lose the 4/25 low, it could be lights out for the crypto-behemoth. With the current area it’s trading in being in such a neutral area, I feel we can play reversions on both sides on any extensions up or down with names that follow the coin (MARA RIOT CAN SOS etc).
Strong Stocks Looking for Continuation
Can see after the initial selloff from earnings, it was bought up for 2 straight days, reclaiming the 20d/50d. Can see we have the 20d, the 50d, and the monthly pivot (there’s a weekly pivot in the same area as well) all congregated in the same area. Would think that any opening flush down into that $93.50 area would be a great spot for scoops.
The 20min chart shows that area is also the high of day from Thursday. Resistance turned support? Hopefully we get a chance to find out Monday.
Just a gorgeous breakout of this nice long base after the earnings release. Retest of this breakout area also has the monthly and quarterly pivots in the same spot. Any flush to $135-$136 should offer a great opportunity to scoop this long.
Paypal still holding this long term trendline very well. Sellers keep trying to take it lower and so far, they aren’t making much headway. If this all of a sudden catches a bid, they are all going to have to run for cover or risk getting steamrolled by this giant. The hypothetical long trade shown in the picture is a swing idea, but this could offer some amazing day trade opportunities as well. Any flush towards Thursday’s lows will be my area to scoop. There’s the monthly pivot right there at $246.04 as well. If you are thinking day trade, then that spot gives you really tight risk since you can just use Thursday’s lows as your stoploss.
The weekly chart really does a great job of helping show that this is really just a pullback to the breakout area. Proper area to risk against if thinking swing trade on the name is the March 5th lows.
Oversold Reversion Setups
FSLY got destroyed after they released their earnings and simultaneously announced their CFO was stepping down. Is it oversold? Yes. Do I like it here? No. I actually want this to try to test $36s before I personally want to get involved. Will be watching this week to see if it gives me what I need.
Weak Stocks Looking for Continuation
This is a major breakdown on Beyond and the sharks smell blood. There are 2 areas where I like the short idea. The first is on pops back to $114-$115 with risk over Friday’s highs. If it wants to try and bounce a bit higher, then I will gladly take the loss and be waiting with Thor’s hammer up around $125.
The weekly chart does a good job of illustrating those 2 levels.
DraftKings lost the 200d on very high volume after earnings were released on Friday. Feel like this can easily see $43-$44 before buyers step back in to establish a new near-term low. Will be watching for any spike on Monday back towards $52-$53 to play the fade. IF it were to just plummet straight down to those $44ish levels right off the open, I do feel there will be a nice bounce play on the long side. But we’ll have to wait and see what happens come Monday.
Overbought Reversion Setups
DISCLAIMER: Keep in mind that these names will be high on my watchlist for Monday morning, but they don’t necessarily have to give the trade on Monday. The higher the better and if they decide to make a few more days of highs without any substantial pullback, I become that much more excited for the trade.
Either a short into $88 (quarterly pivot) on opening extension or watch for lower highs to set in. Will be high on my watchlist.
Fade on an opening shove towards $33 (annual pivot) or wait for lower highs to set in. Another one high on my list for Monday morning.
Interested to see how this reacts into the psychological $100 level. If it clears it with ease, next level of interest isn’t till $105 (quarterly pivot). Either that or we wait for lower highs.
Here are the major names reporting earnings this week
Boy, the chickens are really coming home to roost on this one. Anyone that has followed me for any amount of time knows that this thing is a scam, through and through. For whatever reason Cathie Wood/ARKK were buying it hand over fist till the point where they finally had to puke the whole position recently. The original hype was built upon hopes and dreams of landing the USPS gov’t contract to provide electric vehicle fleets. Those are dead in the water and imo, so is this stock. Feel like it’s slowly making it’s way back to $4-$5 (where it is STILL probably overvalued). Any pop off the earnings back to double digits will be of interest to me to short. Praying for $12, but I won’t hold my breath.
No idea if she offers a wash down to $70s after the numbers come out, but throwing it out there just in case. That is the area for me to personally want to scoop it for a bounce.
Another broken chart. Plan on this one is simple: a fade on a spike back towards the underside of the 200d, or a possibly scoop on an emotional flush down towards the $15 area, playing against that quarterly pivot down there.
Another one of Cathie Wood’s/ARKK’s darlings that is starting to look ugly. A pop into the 20d/50d/annual pivot is an area of high interest for a fade. Not interested in a long unless we test down in the $12-$13 area.
WYNN weekly chart is G O R G E O U S! Look how those weekly candle lows keep bouncing off the weekly 20sma. As long as those lows hold, if we break over $132.10, this could get a very nice leg up. If that happens, I will be looking to join trend long on dips.
If instead, we lose $119.74, I would be interested in scoops around the 200d which lines up really nice with the psychological $100 price level as well as the monthly, quarterly, AND annual pivots! High probability bounce area imo.
And yet another Cathie Wood/ARKK name that got super crowded with retail traders trying to copy her ideas. Chart is broken and I will be using any sort of pop off the numbers as a possible opportunity to fade the name. First area of interest is that $22 area around the 20d. I would possibly leave room to add all the way to the 50d.
Jumia was getting pumped on the long side on Friday from none other than Andrew Left (Citron Research). Funny thing is, this same clown put out a short report on this name a few years ago calling it a complete fraud. SMFH. Focus on price and ignore the noise. This move all the way down from highs is right into key levels from way back. IF these levels hold, it possibly could have a turn from here. BUT, any pop towards $30.50-$31 will have my attention if they can get there emotionally. I will NOT pass up shorting parabolic spikes on this name.
Daily chart shows where I pulled those levels from. Lets see what next week brings.
Another broke chart, another simple plan: short a spike up into the $22 area or buy a flush down towards $13. No emotional move, no trade. Plain and simple.
Monthly on Electronic Arts is really getting interesting. Will this Qs numbers be what finally sends it on a tear? Will be very interesting to see if this creeps higher Monday and Tuesday into the numbers. Gaming sector has been pretty hot lately, but it could need another quarter for this setup to be ready. Only time will tell. But what I DO know is that when this finally does break out, you won’t see me trying to short it. This is the type of setup where once it breaks, I will be looking to see if dips start to hold and try to join trend on the long side.
Daily chart shows that we still have a bit to go for this breakout to be in play. Therefore, if we gap straight into those highs around $152 and it starts to act heavy, that is where there may be a short play in the name. The other area of interest would be on a gap down that wants to test $130ish. We probe down there in an emotional fashion and I would have no hesitation to put on a long for a bounce play.
$34.60ish is the first level I’m interested in buying an emotional flush into. If it gaps through that area, we may end up with 2 different gap-fill levels below. I’m a buyer in any of those areas if we move there emotionally. If they spike this into the 20d off the numbers, I will be willing to fade the move. If it were to gap up even higher than that, I’d be a seller around the highs. Really just going to depend on the market’s reaction to these numbers. Patiently waiting to see.
The chinese ecomm giant is still struggling to get back on its feet. Hoping we get a nice flush down to the $210-$211 area for scoops. Over $245.69 is what is needed though before I think this may actually be starting to turn back around.
Slower name that only trades about 1m shares/day, but on their earnings date it will typically trade closer to 2m-3m, making it liquid enough to have some daytrades on the name. $75 is the area of interest on a flush. Have to wait and see if they beat or miss.
Can see the name recently triggered the long with the break over $117.88. So this pullback right now is either a gift for cheapies before the long plays out, or it’s about to have a failed long bias meaning if it loses $90, it could go much much lower. So on the release of the numbers, if it flushes down towards that level, you have a real clear level of risk. If it gaps below $90, I would be looking for pops to short. On the other hand, if this were to gap up off the numbers, I would most likely not be looking to fade the name since the bigger-picture-long is still valid. I would instead be looking to join trend on dips.
Disney is always one of my faves. If she can clear $189.22 I really want to be looking for dips to hold so I can join trend. No real clear levels of interest I like below besides $162ish which I HIGHLY doubt Disney trades down to, even if they miss on numbers.
This chart has just recently become VERY ugly. Any pop off the numbers that shoves back towards the 20d is a short imo.
There are a whole bunch more names reporting and many of them I am still interested in IF they give me a reason to be. But the ones included in the Sunday Prep are the ones that I feel have the highest chance of giving us big moves that offer high probability trades.
Hope you all had a great weekend. You better have remembered to phone your mom as well!!!! Cheers.